A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
